The Collapse of Empires**
Has the Countdown to the American Empire Begun?!
Dr. Mohammed Berween
Emeritus Professor of Politics and Administration
Texas A&M International University, Texas, USA
The term "empire," in this context, refers to a large and powerful political entity encompassing vast territories and diverse populations, governed by a unified authority.
Among those who studied the "phenomenon of empires" was the British historian Arnold Toynbee (1889-1975), one of the most prominent historians of the 20th century, best known for his monumental work, "A Study of History," published in 1934. Toynbee studied 21 civilizations throughout history, employing the theory of "challenge and response," and concluded that the rise, survival, and collapse of any civilization depend on its ability to respond to the challenges it faces. This means that a civilization is born as a result of revolution or colonization, then grows and persists until it transforms into an "imperial entity" with numerous disastrous consequences. It fails to respond to the challenges it faces, becomes incapable of fulfilling its functions, and ultimately collapses.
Since the beginning of the 20th century, five empires dominated the international stage: the Ottoman, British, French, Soviet, and American empires. All collapsed except for the American empire, which continues to dominate the international stage to this day. And the main questions here are:
Is it time for this empire to collapse?
and,
What are the indicators of this?
Among the most important indicators that led to the collapse of the previous four empires are the following:
First: Depletion of resources and economic collapse
When an empire depletes its resources, it begins to collapse, and marginalized groups are encouraged to rebel. It can be said that the previous four empires fell because they mismanaged their economies and resources.
Second: The struggle for central authority
When historians say that an empire has fallen, this means that its unified authorities were no longer able to carry out their duties and lost control over their territories.
Third: External Pressures and Excessive Expansion
When an empire expands excessively, it becomes difficult to defend its borders, and maintaining them becomes beyond its capacity. The four previous empires collapsed when they believed that their excessive expansion would reflect their strength and greatness.
Fourth: Military Defeats
Historians consider military defeats the primary cause of the collapse of empires and the spark that reveals their weaknesses. Military defeats erode the prestige of armies, expose the weakness of their leadership, and encourage affected parties to rebel and demand their rights.
The Five Empires of the 20th Century
First: The Ottoman Empire
It lasted for more than 400 years and ended after its defeat in World War I in 1918. Historians believe that the "failed siege of Vienna" in 1683 was the turning point and the sign of the beginning of its long and slow decline. It led to the depletion of its resources, the loss of much of its territory, and the loss of control over its peripheries. The beginning of its final collapse was its defeat in Libya against Italy in 1911. It was defeated in the Levant, Iraq, and the Arabian Peninsula under the leadership of Sharif Hussein, commander of what became known as the "Arab Revolt" in 1917. Its collapse was completed with the success of the military coup led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in 1923 and his declaration of the Republic of Turkey.
Second: The French Empire
It reigned supreme from the beginning of the French campaign in Egypt led by General Napoleon Bonaparte in 1798, and continued until its defeat in the Algerian War of Independence in 1962. Among the most important reasons for its collapse were its rapid expansion in Europe, Africa, and Latin America, which led to numerous military defeats and fueled the rise of independence movements.
Third: The British Empire
It lasted from the end of the 16th century until what became known as the Tripartite Aggression against the Suez Canal in 1956 – when Britain, France, and Israel failed to reopen the canal by force after Egypt nationalized it, with the support of the United States and the Soviet Union. The result of this aggression was the collapse of the "illusion of British greatness" and its disintegration. Among the most important reasons for this collapse were:
1. Britain emerging from World War II bankrupt, with losses exceeding $40 billion.
2. The British people's weariness of successive wars and defeats.
3. The rise of nationalist movements demanding independence, the first of which was the independence of India and Pakistan in 1947.
Fourth: The Soviet Empire
The Soviet Union emerged as a global power after its victory in World War II in 1945, standing with oppressed peoples and encouraging them to liberate themselves from capitalist bourgeoisie. The Soviet empire prevailed from the victory of the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia in 1917 until its collapse following its defeat in Afghanistan in 1991. Among the most important reasons for its collapse were:
1. Costly international conflicts,
2. Chronic economic stagnation and an unbearable military burden,
3. The rise of nationalist movements demanding secession,
4. Its defeat in the war in Afghanistan, which cost more than $50 billion, 15,000 lives, and 53,000 soldiers.
Fifth: The American Empire
The United States emerged as a key player on the international stage after its victory in World War II. It assumed a leading role in guiding the world after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and remains the strongest nation financially, economically, and technologically, and the dominant power internationally. The question here is:
How long can America maintain its global leadership and dominance?
and,
What are the most important indicators that will lead to
its collapse and disintegration?
Indicators of the Collapse of the American Empire In my opinion, the most important indicators that will lead to the collapse of the American empire are the following:
First: The Collapse of the Dollar
The US dollar is one of the fundamental pillars of the current global financial system. If America loses its war against Iran, this pillar will collapse, leading to a rise in the price of gold and strengthening the position of the BRICS countries. In other words, the dominance of the American petrodollar will end 52 years after the 1974 US-Saudi agreement, in which Saudi Arabia committed to selling its oil in US dollars in exchange for protection from any external interference. Perhaps one of the signs of the end of this dominance is Iran's demand that oil tanker transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz be paid in Chinese yuan instead of dollars! If Iran succeeds in achieving this condition, it will inevitably lead to the beginning of the dollar's collapse.
Second: The exorbitant cost
By purely financial standards, America can be considered a bankrupt nation! There is ample evidence of this, perhaps the most significant being that the total national debt (as of the end of February 2026) exceeded $39 billion and will continue to rise in the coming years. In the past, when America accumulated debt, it exported it to its allies, as happened in the First Gulf War (1991) and the Second Gulf War (2003). If no one is willing to pay the debts, it prints more dollar bills without any backing or limit. If the war against Iran costs America a billion dollars every day, and its allies (especially the Gulf states) refuse to help cover these costs, it will not be able to sustain the war for long because the cost is exorbitant, and it will inevitably lead to its collapse in the long run.
Third: The End of Technological Supremacy
American technological superiority is an undeniable fact to this day, but this war has demonstrated the beginning of its erosion. In other words, this war has shattered the myth of American technological supremacy, and there are many indicators of this, including:
1. The use of Iranian drones and hyper sonic missiles has penetrated what Israel and America possessed and monopolized.
2. The collapse of American hegemony in the face of numerous, inexpensive, and easy-to-manufacture, transport, and store Iranian weapons.
3. The Iranian hacking group known as "Hanzala" was able to penetrate the enemy's cyber systems.
4. Iran's transition from the US-controlled GPS system to the Chinese "Beidou-3" system.
5. Iran's success in penetrating the Israeli air defense system through a strategy of attrition, blinding, and advanced technology.
6. The attack on the USS Abraham Lincoln and its forced withdrawal from the battlefield is considered a victory for Iran, and it forced other US warships to withdraw beyond a 700 km radius of the Iranian border. This warship cost the US $13 billion and was considered a symbol of power and prestige in the world.
7. Iran's adoption of a "underground warfare" strategy has terrified America and European countries. Iran knows that 99% of global communication and internet cables run through fragile wires in the seas, and that it has the capability to cut these wires in the waters of the Gulf. By doing so, Iran could potentially return Israel, America, and Europe to a Pre-technological Era.
Fourth: Control of the Straits
The truth is that whoever controls the trade routes controls the global economy. The economy is the lifeblood of all nations, and therefore, whoever controls the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab El-Mandeb Strait will ultimately prevail. Iran has realized that controlling these straits is more important than possessing the atomic bomb, given their immense value and significant impact on the global economy.
Fifth: The Failure of International Alliances
It seems that President Trump misunderstood his "America First" slogan, believing it meant that international alliances were unnecessary. This led him to:
1. Withdraw the United States from 38 international organizations affiliated with the United Nations.
2. Withdraw the United States from NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement).
3. Impose tariffs on most countries that trade with the United States.
4. Question the usefulness of NATO because European countries refused to participate in a war against Iran when asked to do so. The German Chancellor responded, "We will not participate in this war, nor will we participate in securing the Strait of Hormuz. We are unaware of any plan to do so, and we do not see any role for NATO in the Strait of Hormuz." The Italian Prime Minister told him:
a. You must understand that you are only the President of the United States, not of Italy, France, or Germany, and you will not have any say over the sovereignty of these countries.
b. You are the one who made the Strait of Hormuz unsafe because of your war with the Iranians, and we will not join you against them. You are obligated to the world to restore its security for the passage of oil tankers, as it was previously.
c. Europe will not bear responsibility for your decisions, whether right or wrong, and Italy refuses to be part of this war, from which we will gain nothing but harm.
Sixth: Military Defeat
President Trump believed that the war on Iran would be swift and decisive, ending in no more than four or five days. However, he was surprised by the extensive and complex Iranian capabilities and preparations. This belief led America into the quagmire of the "Iranian swamp." Trump erred again when he believed that Iran would not attack the Gulf states, that the Gulf states would fight Iran on his behalf and ultimately bear the costs of the war, and that Iran would not close the Strait of Hormuz.
Conclusion
Based on what I have mentioned above, the following can be concluded:
First: Among the most important indicators of the collapse of empires are: economic collapse, excessive expansion, exorbitant costs, the failure of international alliances, and military defeats.
Second: The average period for the collapse of empires ranges from 10 to 20 years.
Third: Military defeat is considered the most important indicator of the beginning of the collapse of empires.
Fourth: America failed to overthrow the Islamic regime in Iran and replace it with a regime loyal to it. This means that America lost the war, and that Iran triumphed in its resistance and entered the club of major powers.
Fifth: An American defeat in this war will lead to significant shifts in the global balance of power and will be the primary reason for the decline of American power and international hegemony.
Finally, my friends, please remember that this is merely an opinion.
I believe it to be correct. If someone offers a better opinion,
we will accept it, and if someone offers a different opinion,
we will respect it.
===========
References
Arnold Toynbee A Study of History, Abridgement of Volumes I-VI
Oxford University Press, 1987
ISBN-13 978-0195050806
2026 Peter G. Peterson Foundation.
https://www.pgpf.org/our-national-debt/?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=23054386004&gclid=CjwKCAiAqprNBhB6EiwAMe3yhmRUIIELitqkuQ30Hf-md90r4HizZE7GthgPrR5aX55gqyFv8UvmxBoCosAQAvD_BwE
** The Article was published (in Arabic)
at: EanLibya Website
April 04, 2026
https://www.eanlibya.com/%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%87%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d9%85%d8%a8%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%b7%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d9%87%d9%84-%d8%a8%d8%af%d8%a3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d8%af%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa/
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